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Paper Promises, by Philip Coggan
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Winner of the Spears Business Book of the Year Award Longlisted for the Financial Times Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award In today's financial climate, we are all, naturally, obsessed by debt. In almost every aspect of our life we experience it - on our credit cards, mortgages, bank loans and student loans. But where has this debt come from? How does it work? What is any money really worth? And what promises do we need to believe to keep the whole system afloat? In this fascinating look at money through the ages - including our own unstable future - award-winning financial journalist Philip Coggan examines the flawed structure of the global finance systems as they exist today, and asks, with deeper imbalances that the world is currently facing, what's actually at stake.
- Sales Rank: #10880135 in Books
- Published on: 2012-10-30
- Released on: 2012-10-30
- Format: International Edition
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 7.85" h x .80" w x 5.10" l, .51 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 304 pages
Review
Bold and confident ... Coggan covers the terrain with characteristic calmness and objectivity, avoids over-simplification, and laces his arguments with his trademark erudition ... The alphabet soup of acronyms, from SIVs to CDO Squareds, is blissfully lacking ... Finally, the book is free from the shrieking ideology that afflicts virtually all contemporary debates over money. Indeed, it offers a clear explanation of the fresh ideological divisions that have arisen over how to deal with the crisis ... the book should be taken very seriously Financial Times This book stands way above anything written on the present economic crisis -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of 'The Black Swan' The most illuminating account of the financial crisis to appear to date ... [written] with a lucidity that enables him to convey deep insights without a trace of jargon ... [a] thought-stirring book -- John Gray New Statesman A remarkable book from one of the most respected economics journalists on the planet. Every page brings a fresh insight or a new surprise. A delight -- Tim Harford, author of 'The Undercover Economist' Fascinating and authoritative, with the rigour and depth to satisfy an economist and the accessibility and pace to engage the layperson ... If everyone read Coggan's book we might just be a little more circumspect if and when the next burst of irrational exuberance overtakes the economy Management Today A masterful history of financial crises Independent By far the best analysis of the "new normal" -- David Stevenson Financial Times An excellent book ... a smart and witty analysis of the current economic storm, set in the context of the history of money -- David Wighton The Times Coggan is ... an exceptional banking and economic historian Irish Examiner Coggan traces 'history's tug of war between monetary shortage and excess' in this engaging and timely book about the current financial crisis... Thoughtful and thorough Publishers Weekly Intriguing Irish Independent Coggan ... deserves his Best Communicator award: he moves the story along at a fast and flowing pace, combined with the ability to find the short phrase that summarizes in simple language the kernel of many complex economic ideas ... demonstrates a comprehensive awareness of the major academic debates in economics and economic history ... deserves to be one of the three books you read from the vast literature spawned by the recent crisis -- John Gent LSE blog A very good and sensible introduction to the history of the recent economic crisis, with an emphasis on debt and also historical perspective Tyler Cowen Blog
About the Author
Philip Coggan was a Financial Times journalist for over twenty years, and is now the Buttonwood columnist for the Economist. In 2009 he was named Senior Financial Journalist in the Harold Wincott awards and was voted Best Communicator at the Business Journalist of the Year Awards. He is the author of The Money Machine, and Paper Promises, winner of the Spears Business Book of the Year Award and longlisted for the Financial Times Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award.
Most helpful customer reviews
84 of 90 people found the following review helpful.
Excessive Debt or the Illusion of Wealth
By Serge J. Van Steenkiste
Philip Coggan explores with much clarity the different cycles in which money and debt have expanded. Mr. Coggan reminds his audience that money is concomitantly a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Two of these monetary roles - the means of exchange and store of value - lie at the heart of the ongoing struggle between creditors and debtors.
Starting in the United Kingdom in the late eighteenth century, the Industrial Revolution resulted into accelerated economic growth, significant population increase, and more trade across the developed world and its colonies. This burst of activity required more official money that remained based on precious metals until WWI. The United Kingdom led the way once again with the adoption of the gold standard among developed economies in the first half of the nineteenth century. The absence of universal suffrage allowed the upper or creditor classes to whom central bankers usually belonged, to favor a policy of sound currency backed by gold, regardless of the pain inflicted to the lower social classes. WWI resulted into the suspension of the gold standard and the massive increase in paper money.
Power shifted to debtors during the inter-war period due to the widespread adoption of democracy and the impossibility to restore the gold standard because of the burden of international debts, especially war reparations. During this period, the global money supply expanded, resulting in more paper money relative to gold. The crisis of 1931 resulted into a deflationary trap and the shift toward the modern welfare state to try to mitigate the effects of persistent mass unemployment in the 1930s. Widespread trade protectionism compounded the difficulty for governments of advanced economies to manage the economic cycle during this period.
Under the leadership of the U.S., the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates was introduced in 1944 and remained in place until 1971. This system was built on the control of capital flows and the confidence of international investors in the U.S. economic policy. Currencies were linked to the U.S. dollar, which was itself linked to gold. Only central banks were able to convert paper money into the gold that the U.S. owned. During this period, economic activity far outstripped the supply of precious metals.
Confidence in the U.S. economic policy broke down in 1971. The final link with gold was removed by the U.S. The combination of paper money and the adoption of floating exchange rates, in the developed world at least, resulted into a massive increase in the volume of debt. Governments, mainly in the developed world, further fueled this debt bonfire by making more and more unfunded promises to their (ageing) electorates. The past decades witnessed first runaway inflation, then a series of bursting asset bubbles from the 1980s onwards. During the same period, the increase in consumer prices was constrained thanks to globalization, technological advances, and the greater role of women in the workforce.
The current global debt crisis, which started in 2007-2008, has witnessed the return of the problems associated with the 1930s, i.e., debt/deflation spiral and the paradox of thrift. Central banks have not hesitated to sacrifice the value of their currencies to protect the financial system.
To his credit, Mr. Coggan clearly articulates the likely long-term consequences of this debt crisis, i.e., inflation, stagnation, and default.
1. High inflation is very tempting to the central banks of heavily indebted countries. However, creditors will push back by asking for the same real rate of interest, regardless of the level of inflation. Furthermore, quantitative easing (QE), which also sacrifices creditors' interests to the benefit of those of debtors, is an unproven tactic that is unlikely to work. As Mr. Coggan learns from Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky, two hedge fund managers, printing money and extending credit do not create wealth. QE at best redistributes wealth; at worst may temper its creation.
2. Low interest rates, which reward debtors at the expense of creditors, and low growth, go hand in hand. The cost of capital and the return of capital tend to be at the same level. Therefore, if this is the case, the Western world is following a deeply flawed strategy. Electorates will push sooner or later their representatives to erode the debt, in real or nominal terms, to try to escape from stagnation. Nonetheless, creditors will push back as it was noted previously.
3. The temptation to default is also high. The political unpopularity involved in paying "greedy" (foreign) creditors will overwhelm any other issue associated with a default. The best that creditors can do is to cut off (temporarily) the defaulting debtors from access to further borrowing.
It does not matter which of these three scenarios ultimately gets the upper hand, writes Mr. Coggan. Debt is unlikely to be repaid in the form of money with the same purchasing power as when it was lent. Breaking these paper promises will damage the interests of both debtors and creditors.
Many developed Western economies are unlikely to escape from this crisis by achieving high growth due to population and productivity constraints as well as higher energy prices. Some developed countries will be able to muddle through; others will be ensnared into a debt trap. The developing countries will have to review their options under these circumstances.
Mr. Coggan concludes his examination of the history of money and debt by looking at the outlines of a new international currency system resulting from a world economy in crisis. The U.S. and China are at odds with each other about the outlines of this new system. China prefers a system of fixed exchange rates, the U.S. a system of floating exchange rates.
In summary, Mr. Coggan does a great job in making a complex subject accessible to a wider audience.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Superb book about money, debt and the challenges to come
By sien
Paper Promises (2011) by Phillip Coggan is a masterful study of money and debt. Coggan worked at the Financial Times for 20 years and now writes at The Economist. He has written a number of books on finance that are all highly regarded. The book looks at the history of money and credit and concentrates on the post industrial revolution world where credit and fiat currency rapidly expanded.
The book starts with a brief look at money in history before moving the C19 and then C20 and most of the book looks at the period from the depression onwards. The impact of tight money in the depression is carefully examined. Beyond that the Bretton Woods settlement that was in place during the rapid economic growth after WWII and the post Bretton Woods era of freely traded rapidly inflating currencies and the GFC is studied.
The book has a lot of well chosen quotes including the observation the Alan Greenspan displayed asymmetric ignorance in that he knew when a downturn was happening but did not detect bubbles. Coggan also points out how gold was trading at $35 an ounce in 1971 at the end of the Bretton Woods agreement and now trades at $1900, so the modern world has devalued in 40 years as much as Rome did in 200.
The last chapters of the book are fascinating. Coggan looks at how the build up of debt in the latter half of the C20 for Social Spending has been managed by substantial population growth as well as productivity growth and that at least the first, and possibly the second is reducing and that the debts accumulated today cannot be paid off. There will have to be reductions in the debt burden either explicitly or through currency devaluation. Coggan does miss however, that budgets can be balanced as was done by Germany, Singapore, Australia's last competent government and various Scandinavian countries.
The book doesn't give firm recommendations and fairly describes various positions on monetary and fiscal policy. The final chapters don't give a recommendation but rather a description of the serious problems that many countries around the world are now facing. The books tone and insight are very much like The Economist magazine for which Coggan now writes for. The clear, succinct style is a great strength in looking at a complex issue like money. The book is very much worth reading for anyone interested in finance and economics.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great for general investor reading crowd
By Boston suburban dweller
Great summary of past market turmoil with the credit crunch. He does a great job of bringing together opposing views, so that a reader can hear BOTH sides of an argument and gain some perspective on why the markets got so out of tune. (I don't enjoy the "I'm right and I saw it coming" type of books. Instead, the author has a perspective, but importantly gives opposing views and quotes, developing an understanding of why otherwise rational people and investors go off-track in a significant way). The chapters are clear, and the examples are good. The author notes his sources well, so interested readers have great additional books to read. (Again, if someone writes a "this is what happened book," and don't note their sources, what's the point? Fortunately, this book uses excellent sources throughout the story line.)
Lastly, the target audience is probably general investor type. It is not laden with industry jargon, so it's well written for someone with familiarity with investments and with an interest in the financial market operations.
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